In a recent episode of Macro Markets, analyst Marcel Pechman discusses the current state of the American economy and highlights the disparity between people’s perception of the economy and the objective data. He agrees with Barron’s assessment that a significant portion of the U.S. population lacks sufficient savings for retirement, despite the concept of excess savings being a myth. Pechman notes that household wealth in the U.S. has reached new heights, primarily due to surges in equities and real estate assets.
Pechman also addresses rising concerns among U.S. consumers about increasing prices, particularly the cost of gasoline. He connects this to the recent surge in U.S. crude futures, influenced by Saudi Arabia’s decision to extend output curbs. He predicts challenges for President Joe Biden in managing inflation and the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes on real estate and the S&P 500. Pechman suggests that if inflation outpaces income growth, it could exert downward pressure on Bitcoin.
Furthermore, Pechman explores the possibility of a government shutdown in the U.S. due to disagreements in Congress. He questions the use of disaster funds to cover war expenses and highlights the potential consequences and legality of such maneuvers. Pechman concludes by suggesting that a government shutdown could trigger a bull run in Bitcoin, and advises keeping an eye on this potential trigger for a cryptocurrency rally in early October.
Summary:
– Marcel Pechman discusses the lack of sufficient savings for retirement among a significant portion of the U.S. population, despite the myth of excess savings.
– Household wealth in the U.S. has reached new heights due to surges in equities and real estate assets.
– Rising concerns about increasing prices, particularly gasoline costs, are connected to the recent surge in U.S. crude futures influenced by Saudi Arabia’s decision to extend output curbs.
– Challenges for President Joe Biden include managing inflation and the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes on real estate and the S&P 500.
– If inflation outpaces income growth, it could exert downward pressure on Bitcoin.
– The possibility of a government shutdown in the U.S. due to disagreements in Congress is explored, with questions raised about the use of disaster funds to cover war expenses.
– A government shutdown could trigger a bull run in Bitcoin, potentially leading to a cryptocurrency rally in early October.